Extreme weather is a new reality, and end-of-life solar management is more important than ever.
The rapid expansion of solar energy in the United States (U.S.) is helping this nation get to a more sustainable energy future faster. However, as the rate of installing new utility-scale solar continues to escalate, two times the rate today of 2023 with 38 GW of new installed capacity expected for 2024 (Cleanview), extreme weather patterns are also growing in key solar growth states.
It’s the convergence of two things happening at the same time: 1) Increases in extreme weather events such as hail and tornadoes and 2) an increase in large solar projects across the country. New capacity coupled with an escalation in speed of installation of projects that are increasingly going into farm belts and states such as Nebraska and Texas means more sun power, but the potential risk of for more extreme weather that can destroy solar projects goes up, too. That doesn’t have to mean an increase in risk to the environment.
Weather trends of the last decade do suggest that extreme weather patterns will continue to shift upward and unpredictably. And while solar developers and engineers devise new technical ways to mitigate these impacts, in the meantime we can take a best-practice approach to managing the reality of a weather-impacted world when it comes to the solar supply chain.
We can responsively decommission and recycle 100% of solar panels when they are destroyed beyond use by extreme weather, we can ensure damaged panels don’t sit in fields and no part of the panel goes to a landfill, and we can responsibly and sustainably reclaim scarce materials and metals in them for reuse in the electrification supply chain.
How much exposure do industrial-scale project owners have to catastrophic weather?
In 2023, Texas was the country’s second-largest producer of solar power, after California. Solar energy accounted for about 6% of the state’s total electricity generation in 2023 at about 18.5 GW or 20-35 million solar depending on the kilowatt size. Power plant developers plan to add almost 24 GW of utility-scale solar generating capacity in Texas during 2024 and 2025. (EIA (Energy Information Administration), NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory))
Great for taking fossil fuels out of the energy generation equation, but it is also adding tens of millions of new exposed solar panels to the mix in an extreme weather state.
From 1980–2024 (as of August 8, 2024), Texas had 186 confirmed weather/climate disaster events, of which 22.4% were severe storms. The 1980–2023 annual average was 3.9 events, but for the last 5 years the average for the most recent 5 years (2019–2023) is 11.0 events. So, it is likely we will see more damage. Anecdotally, we hear from industrial-scale developers that it is in the 2-3% of installed panels that are expected to turn over annually for maintenance or damage, depending on the geographic location, weather patterns (high heat versus frozen hail and tornadoes), and age of panels.
Other states throughout the U.S. are also seeing shifts in weather extremes as the hot zones are getting hotter and the Southwestern and central farm belts are experiencing more extreme storm events.
Technology will of course advance to help in the fight against Mother Nature to make projects more resilient against severe weather. But regardless of how fast those innovations occur, reliability of an end-of-life solution and elimination of risk for people and planet is paramount.
Scaling up this capacity to achieve a truly circular and closed loop supply chain for the solar industry is job #1.
Catastrophe or Simply End-Of-Life Ready?
Because solar panels contain various hazardous materials, including cadmium, lead, and other heavy metals, which can leach into the soil and water if not responsibly managed, we believe the best plan is to eliminate the concern or risk of environmental contamination throughout the project lifecycle – whether it is in the aftermath of weather-related events or in the case of standard project maintenance or full project decommissioning.
Our customers increasingly seek to define their catastrophic damage and end-of-life solution at the point of project permitting and commissioning, and more permitting authorities are requiring it. This can increase real comfort for communities where large solar projects operate so that the solar in their backyards does not pose environmental risks. Every stakeholder can take comfort in knowing the solar supply chain where they live is safe and environmentally sound.
Recent Weather Events
NEBRASKA
In June of 2023, a 5.2-megawatt solar farm in Scottsbluff, Nebraska destroyed more than 14,000 solar panels. The weather event saw large hail stones and high winds, part of supercell thunderhead that moved from eastern Wyoming into Nebraska. The area has some of the highest frequencies of hailstorms in the country, averaging seven to nine hailstorms per year. (IER, Institute for Energy Research)
TEXAS
In March of 2024, Fox 26 Houston reported “Thousands of solar panels in the Needville area were destroyed in a heavy hailstorm on March 16 and residents are concerned about possible chemical contamination.” https://youtu.be/rVaq3a-z9iU?si=dRLtums40r_5nHVA
Our Solution
Media
Sources
National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Ramasamy, Vignesh, Jarett Zuboy, Michael Woodhouse, Eric O’Shaughnessy, David Feldman, Jal Desai, Andy Walker, Robert Margolis, and Paul Basore. NREL/TP7A40-87303. U.S. Solar Photovoltaic System and Energy Storage Cost Benchmarks, With Minimum Sustainable Price Analysis: Q1 2023
NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2024). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/, DOI (Department of the Interior): 10.25921/stkw-7w73
Renewable Energy World, John Engel, June 30, 2023
United States Energy Information Agency (EIA)
- U.S. EIA, Electric Power Monthly (February 2024), Tables 1.17.B, 6.2.B.
- U.S. EIA, Electricity Data Browser, Net generation for all sectors, Texas, All fuels, Annual, 2021-23.
- U.S. EIA, “Solar capacity additions are changing the shape of daily electricity supply in Texas,” Today in Energy (April 9, 2024).
U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy (NREL) 1 GW = 1.887 million solar panels representative of bifacial modules (average industrial size) of 530 watts.
